Cash-flow base
Fekola + Goose + Masbate + OtjikotoThe current valuation is not based solely on future projects. Fekola, Goose, Masbate and Otjikoto are already producing gold and generating cash flow.
B2Gold · Deep Dive · DRAFT 29c · As of August 19, 2026
Cash flow today.
Growth tomorrow.
B2Gold is an internationally diversified gold producer with four producing mines: Fekola in Mali, Goose in Canada, Masbate in the Philippines and Otjikoto in Namibia.
Behind this geographic diversification, however, is a portfolio in transition. Fekola remains the most important established cash-flow contributor, Masbate and Otjikoto are in more mature phases of their mine lives, while Goose is making a meaningful contribution to group production for the first time in 2026. At the same time, Fekola Regional and Antelope are intended to extend the utilization of existing infrastructure; the Back River District and Gramalote provide additional development and exploration optionality.
8.99 MozProbable Reserves · 100% project basis
US$287mCash · June 30, 2026
820–920 koz2026 production guidance
US$2,370–2,550/oz2026 AISC guidance
Transparency notice · 30 Aug 2026: The author currently holds no shares in B2Gold. There is no compensation agreement or paid research cooperation with the company. Legal information.
01 · Investment Thesis
Cash flows today.
New assets tomorrow.
The B2Gold investment thesis is not built around a single project, but around the combination of current cash-flow generation, already well-advanced growth projects and additional optionality. With the gold prepay obligations ending and construction of Goose largely complete, the financial focus is increasingly shifting from heavy investment toward free cash flow. At current metal prices, B2Gold expects substantial free-cash-flow generation in the second half of 2026 and in 2027.
Not every future ounce has the same value, however. Goose combines high grades and a long resource base with a Canadian jurisdiction; Fekola Regional can leverage existing infrastructure but operates under a materially more demanding political and fiscal framework. Antelope could extend the use of existing infrastructure in Namibia, while Gramalote and the additional resources across the Back River District provide further optionality. For Minenwerte, the key question is therefore not maximum group production, but how much free cash flow remains attributable to B2Gold after taxes, investment and government interests – and what price the market is paying today for those future cash flows.
Company
B2Gold
Gold production · Cash flow · Growth
01
Fekola
Mali · Core asset
Goose
Canada · New core asset
Masbate
Philippines · Stockpile cash flows
Otjikoto
Namibia · Mature asset
Producing mines
02
Fekola Regional
Mali · Additional feed source
Antelope
Namibia · Brownfield extension
Growth & Life Extension
03
Back River District
Canada · Resources beyond Goose
Gramalote
Colombia · Development project
Exploration & Optionality
Growth & Life Extension
Fekola Regional + AntelopeThese projects expand or extend existing production platforms and can partly offset the decline of more mature mines.
Optionality
Back River + GramaloteGramalote and the high-grade resources in the Back River Gold District could add substantial value, but in our Base NAV they are clearly separated from cash flows already supported by production or reserves.
Minenwerte Perspective
B2Gold combines substantial current cash flows with several already well-advanced opportunities to extend and broaden its production base. Fekola Regional and Antelope can further monetize existing infrastructure, while Back River and Gramalote provide additional long-term optionality.
Our valuation suggests that the aggregate discounted economic value of this portfolio could exceed B2Gold’s current market valuation.
Go to valuation ↓02 · Fekola
Fekola Mine · Fekola Regional
Fekola.
Strong asset, expensive jurisdiction.
Fekola, in southwestern Mali near the Senegal border and roughly 500 kilometres west of Bamako, has been one of B2Gold’s most important gold mines since production began in 2017. The complex combines a large open pit with the existing Fekola mill, additional deposits at Cardinal and FNE, underground mining since 2025 and, in the future, ore from Fekola Regional. This existing infrastructure makes Fekola far more than a single mine: it is the processing platform for an entire gold district.
2.70 MozProbable Reserves · Fekola Complex · 100% basis
1.76 g/taverage reserve grade · Fekola Complex
410–460 koz2026 production guidance · 100% basis
5.53 MozIndicated Resources · Fekola Complex · incl. reserves
The asset’s history is notable: B2Gold acquired Fekola through Papillon Resources in 2014, began construction in early 2015 and commissioned the mill in September 2017, more than three months ahead of the original schedule and on budget. First gold was poured on October 7, 2017, and commercial production was achieved by the end of November. In July 2025, Fekola surpassed four million ounces of cumulative production.
Fekola has now entered a new phase. The original open pit remains important, but is increasingly complemented by Cardinal, FNE, underground mining launched in 2025 and, in the future, Fekola Regional. The Menankoto Exploitation Permit granted in August 2026 removes the key regulatory bottleneck for Regional. B2Gold now describes the expanded complex as having a secured future well into the late 2030s. At the same time, the economics differ materially: the existing Fekola Mine remains under the 2012 Mining Code and is 80% owned by B2Gold, while Fekola Regional falls under the 2023 Mining Code and, once the agreed ownership structure is implemented, is expected to be 65% owned by B2Gold and 35% by the State of Mali.
Fekola · from single asset to regional production hub
2014Acquisition of Papillon Resources and the Fekola project.
2017Mill completed, first gold poured and commercial production achieved – ahead of the original schedule.
2025Four-millionth ounce produced; Fekola Underground begins mining following approval.
2026Menankoto permit granted. Fekola Regional can become the next feed source for the complex.
late 2030sAccording to the company, the expanded Fekola Complex now has visibility well into the late 2030s.
Geology, Mining & Processing
Much of the value also lies in the existing infrastructure.
As of March 31, 2026, the Fekola Complex reserve base comprises approximately 47.7 million tonnes at 1.76 g/t gold, or 2.70 Moz. Of this, 1.83 Moz is attributable to the existing Fekola Mine, including Open Pit, Cardinal, FNE, Underground and stockpiles; a further 0.88 Moz is contained in Anaconda and Dandoko within Fekola Regional. Fekola Underground at 3.16 g/t and the Dandoko reserves at 3.22 g/t are particularly high grade. Beyond reserves, the complex reports 5.53 Moz of Indicated Resources and 3.07 Moz of Inferred Resources – resources should explicitly not be equated with economically demonstrated reserves.
Underground mining complements the open pit with higher-grade material. B2Gold plans longhole stoping; reserves are calculated using 92% metallurgical recovery, 8% dilution and 95% mining recovery. For Regional, by contrast, haulage to the existing Fekola plant remains a central component of the economics.
| Reserve area | Moz | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Fekola Open Pit | 1,22 | 1.80 g/t |
| Cardinal + FNE | 0,30 | 1.66 g/t* |
| Fekola Underground | 0,16 | 3.16 g/t |
| Stockpiles | 0,15 | 0.82 g/t |
| Anaconda | 0,65 | 1.73 g/t |
| Dandoko | 0,23 | 3.22 g/t |
Processing is conventional and technically proven: primary crushing, a SAG mill with pebble crushing, a secondary ball mill, thickening, leaching and carbon-in-pulp, followed by elution, electrowinning and doré production. Recent quarters show metallurgical recoveries of roughly 91–92%. This established mill is the strategic core of the regional hub model: additional deposits do not need to finance a complete standalone processing plant and can instead use existing capacity, provided mining and haulage economics are attractive enough.
Energy, People & Location
A large mine is more than ore and a mill.
Fekola generates power from a combination of heavy fuel oil, diesel, solar and battery systems. The 30 MWac solar plant entered service in 2021; following expansion and full integration in March 2025, B2Gold says it supplies, depending on the season, approximately 28–30% of annual power demand. This reduces fuel consumption and reliance on purely thermal self-generation, but does not eliminate the logistical challenges of a remote mine site.
Fekola is also socially significant for Mali. B2Gold puts its investment in the country since 2014 at more than US$2 billion and employs more than 3,300 peopleof whom around98% are Malian nationals. Beyond jobs and local investment, land use, relationships with surrounding communities, water and tailings management and rehabilitation remain central operating considerations for the long-term valuation. With a mine life extending into the late 2030s, the complex’s social licence is not a secondary issue.
Fekola Regional
More ounces – but not the same economics.
Fekola Regional lies roughly 20 kilometres north of the existing mine and includes Menankoto and Dandoko. The area adds not only resources but already 0.88 Moz of Probable Reserves to the expanded complex. The decisive step came on August 7, 2026 with the granting of the Menankoto Exploitation Permit, ending a lengthy delay that had prevented planned Regional mining during 2025 and the first half of 2026.
Economically, Regional must still be considered separately from the existing mine. It falls under the 2023 Mining Code and the agreed structure provides for 65% for B2Gold and 35% for the State of Mali going forward. Royalties and taxes also differ from the historical Fekola regime. The existing mill creates a clear infrastructure advantage, but at shareholder level less value from a Regional ounce accrues to B2Gold than from an economically comparable ounce in a fully controlled asset.
Fekola · Fiscal stack in the model
The state participates through multiple channels – and increasingly as the gold price rises.
The existing Fekola Mine remains fundamentally under the 2012 Mining Code, but the agreements with Mali added further fiscal burdens. Fekola Regional, by contrast, falls under the 2023 Mining Code and carries a higher state interest as well as a different tax and royalty framework. These differences are material to valuation: applying a single “Fekola multiple” would distort the cash flows actually attributable to B2Gold.
We therefore model Fekola Mine and Fekola Regional separately in the DCF and also use higher discount rates of 8% for Fekola Mine and 9% for Fekola Regional. Detailed assumptions for royalties, mining funds, income tax and other fiscal burdens are explicitly reflected in the valuation model.
DCF cost base · normalized from 2027
2026 is not a meaningful long-term cost anchor.
The high 2026 AISC is not simply extrapolated into subsequent years. The year includes unusually high sustaining and development spending, including deferred stripping and underground development. For the longer-term valuation, the model therefore relies more heavily on published life-of-mine unit costs and remaining capital requirements. This avoids allowing a capital-intensive transition year to artificially inflate costs over the entire remaining mine life.
Open PitLOM cost base per tonne moved rather than 2026 AISC as a permanent run rate
Undergroundseparate mining costs and higher-grade feed
Processingexisting Fekola mill as shared infrastructure anchor
Maliapply taxes, royalties and ownership after establishing asset-level economics
Fekola is therefore neither merely an ageing open-pit mine nor simply a Regional growth story. Its value lies in the combination of existing infrastructure, a still-large reserve and resource base, higher-grade underground feed and multiple regional ore sources. Against this stand a more demanding fiscal regime, political and permitting risks and B2Gold’s lower ownership of Regional. This combination makes Fekola both the most important and the most complex asset in our B2Gold valuation.
03 · Goose
Goose Mine · Back River Gold District
Goose.
High grade, remote, strategically important.
Goose is located in the Back River Gold District in Nunavut, roughly 520 kilometres northeast of Yellowknife. B2Gold acquired the project with Sabina Gold & Silver in 2023, completed construction in 2025 and poured first gold at the end of June 2025; Goose has been in commercial production since October 2, 2025. For B2Gold, the mine is more than a replacement for mature assets: it is the new Canadian core asset and the processing base for a high-grade gold district that remains only partly developed.
2.38 MozProbable Reserves · 100% basis
6.79 g/taverage reserve grade
170–230 koz2026 production guidance · ramp-up
>300 koztarget annual production once 4,000 t/d is achieved
Goose’s quality starts with grade. Current Probable Reserves comprise 10.9 million tonnes averaging6.79 g/t goldThe Umwelt Open Pit grades 7.91 g/t, Llama Open Pit 6.39 g/t and the Umwelt underground reserve 8.26 g/t. The resource base extends well beyond this: the Goose Claims Group contains 3.79 Moz of Indicated Resources at 7.40 g/t and 2.28 Moz of Inferred Resources at 7.63 g/t, in each case including resources converted to reserves. Particularly notable are the high-grade underground resources at Umwelt and Llama, as well as Nuvuyak – a key reason Goose can be viewed not only as today’s mine, but as the starting point for a much longer district story.
The downside is the location. Goose has no year-round road access. Heavy equipment, supplies and fuel are shipped during the ice-free months to the Marine Laydown Area at Bathurst Inlet and then transported to the mine over an annually constructed, approximately163-kilometre winter ice roadLogistics, inventory, weather and timely procurement are therefore direct components of mine economics – not peripheral issues.
Goose · from development project to B2Gold’s fourth mine
2023B2Gold acquires Sabina Gold & Silver and the Back River Gold District.
2024Construction and logistics are reset; additional infrastructure and higher transport costs increase capital requirements.
June 2025First gold pour following completion of the major construction work.
Oct. 2025Commercial production after 30 days at a minimum of 65% of the 4,000 t/d design capacity.
2026–27Crusher upgrades are intended to enable ~3,200 t/d initially and 4,000 t/d thereafter; >300 koz per year is targeted once achieved.
Geology & Mine Plan
Few tonnes – a lot of gold.
Goose combines several high-grade deposits with open-pit and underground mining. The reserve base comprises Umwelt, Llama and Goose Main plus stockpiles. Around1,34 Mozare contained in the open pits; a further0,98 Mozis attributable to Umwelt Underground. Longhole stoping is planned underground. Reserve assumptions use 92.5% metallurgical recovery; the underground cut-off grade is 4.64 g/t.
For the longer-term outlook, the key point is that current reserves represent only part of the geological endowment. Umwelt alone contains 1.53 Moz of Indicated underground resources at 11.65 g/t. Llama Underground contains 0.18 Moz Indicated at 15.45 g/t and another 0.63 Moz Inferred at 11.13 g/t. Nuvuyak currently contains 0.70 Moz Inferred at 8.26 g/t. Resources are not reserves and have no demonstrated economic viability – but the grades illustrate why additional drilling could be highly material to NAV.
| Area | Moz | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Umwelt Open Pit | 0,58 | 7.91 g/t |
| Llama Open Pit | 0,29 | 6.39 g/t |
| Goose Main Open Pit | 0,47 | 4.79 g/t |
| Umwelt Underground | 0,98 | 8.26 g/t |
| Stockpiles | 0,05 | 3.71 g/t |
Processing & Ramp-up
The mill works – the bottleneck has been upstream.
The processing plant is designed for a nominal4,000 tonnes per dayand a planned average feed grade of roughly 6 g/t. The flowsheet is conventional: crushing, grinding, gravity concentration, leaching, carbon adsorption, cyanide destruction, elution and regeneration, gold refining, and tailings thickening and disposal. In Q1 2026, Goose processed ore grading 7.92 g/t and achieved 93.5% recovery – metallurgy has therefore not been the central issue so far.
The bottleneck has instead been crushing and therefore the availability of sufficient crushed ore. Crushing capacity already fell short of expectations in 2025. On April 16, 2026, a fire also affected parts of the crushing circuit; no one was injured and the mill and power plant were undamaged. B2Gold is using the repair period for a larger redesign including a run-of-mine bin, apron feeder, larger jaw crusher and rock breaker. Phase 1 is expected to enable roughly 3,200 t/d by the end of Q3 2026, while Phase 2 is intended to deliver the full 4,000 t/d capacity in the first half of 2027.
TodayRamp-upMobile crushing, high transition costs
→
End of Q3 2026~3,200 t/dROM bin + apron feeder + larger crusher
→
H1 20274,000 t/dNameplate crushing capacity
→
Steady state>300 koz/amedium-term production target
Arctic Logistics
A mine whose supply chain is part of the mine plan.
Annual resupply begins at sea. During open water – typically August through October – supplies and fuel are shipped to the Marine Laydown Area at Bathurst Inlet and stored for the following winter. Once conditions permit, the winter ice road is built; the transport window to the mine generally runs from February through May. In 2025, more than 4,000 loads and roughly 80 million litres of fuel were moved to the mine along this route.
This logistics chain explains part of the site’s high costs and capital requirements. Following the acquisition, B2Gold had to build additional infrastructure, replace equipment and reorganize supply. In the 2024 cost revision, roughly C$70 million of the increase was attributed to higher logistics costs alone. At the same time, the completed infrastructure now creates a barrier to entry: new resources in the Back River District can potentially benefit from a system whose camp, mill, power supply, marine staging and transport chain are already in place.
Inuit Partnership & Licence to Operate
In Kitikmeot, social partnership is part of the asset.
B2Gold explicitly describes its relationship with theKitikmeot Inuit Association (KIA)as central to the “licence to operate” in the Back River Gold District. Development is intended to reflect Inuit priorities, address concerns and create long-term socioeconomic benefits for the Kitikmeot region. For a remote Arctic project, this is not merely an ESG issue: labour, local relationships, environmental management and acceptance of further exploration directly influence how far the district can develop beyond Goose.
Costs & Valuation
2026 reflects ramp-up – not long-term economics.
For 2026, B2Gold expects production of 170–230 koz at cash costs of $1,610–1,810/oz and AISC of $2,670–2,970/oz. At first glance these figures look disappointing for a high-grade Canadian asset, but they include an incomplete ramp-up, low throughput, high sustaining and underground-development spending and optimization of the crushing circuit. Roughly 65% of annual production is expected in the second half of the year.
We therefore do not use 2026 as a permanent cost anchor. Once crushing reaches 4,000 t/d and Goose operates for a full year at steady state, B2Gold expects production of more than 300 koz per year. For our valuation, a6% discount rateremains appropriate: Canada materially reduces political risk versus Mali, while Arctic logistics, the short operating history and still-unproven steady-state performance clearly rule out a risk-free approach.
Goose · what is not yet fully visible in Base NAV
The existing mine could be only the first step.
The Back River Gold District covers an approximately 80-kilometre belt with numerous project areas. B2Gold currently reports a total 2026 exploration budget ofUS$51 million of explorationacross the district, of which US$29 million is directed to Goose and US$22 million to regional targets. Focus areas include Llama, Nuvuyak, Mammoth, Hook and Wing, as well as the regional George, Boot, Boulder, Del and Needle projects.
B2Gold is also studying further throughput expansion. A potential SAG mill expansion combined with the existing ball mill could ultimately increase processing capacity to as much as6,000 t/dThis is not included in our Base Case. It does, however, illustrate why further reserve conversion and district exploration success could have disproportionate value: the more high-grade ore that passes through existing infrastructure, the more effectively the high Arctic fixed-cost base is spread.
Goose is therefore both a quality asset and an execution test for B2Gold.The geology is exceptionally attractive, the jurisdiction is high quality and district optionality is substantial. But only when crushing, throughput, the underground ramp-up and the Arctic supply chain operate reliably together over several quarters will the asset’s sustainable margins become clear. If that transition succeeds, Goose could become far more than a 300 koz mine: it could be the infrastructure hub of a long-life Canadian gold district.
04 · Masbate
Masbate Gold Project · Aroroy
Masbate.
Mature – but far from worthless.
Masbate is located in the north of the Philippine island of Masbate, roughly 360 kilometres southeast of Manila. B2Gold gained exposure to the already-producing asset through its 2013 acquisition of CGA Mining. Today, Masbate is a large conventional open-pit operation with an established CIP plant – and a good example of why the end of active mining does not necessarily mean the end of cash flow.
1.46 MozProbable Reserves · 100% basis
0.72 g/taverage reserve grade
180–200 kozupdated 2026 production guidance
2034Stockpile processing under the current mine plan
Masbate has an unusually long mining history. Atlas Consolidated Mining operated the area from 1980 to 1994. After several ownership changes, the modern Masbate Gold Project was developed by Filminera and PGPRC; B2Gold acquired CGA Mining in early 2013. Masbate then became a reliable producer for B2Gold over many years – less spectacular than Fekola or Goose, but with consistent production and comparatively low costs.
The current mine plan has two distinct phases:active open-pit mining is expected to end in 2028, while processing of economic ore stockpiles is planned to continue through 2034.This is central to the valuation. A large share of the 1.46 Moz of Probable Reserves is already contained in stockpiles: roughly 0.74 Moz, or just over half of reserve ounces. Masbate is therefore gradually transitioning from a conventional mine into a processing and stockpile cash-flow asset.
1980–94Historical mining by Atlas.
2013B2Gold acquires CGA Mining and Masbate.
2026180–200 koz guidance; established cash-flow contributor.
2028Active open-pit mining is expected to end under the current plan.
through 2034Processing of economic reserve stockpiles.
Ore, Processing & Recovery
Low grades – offset by high throughput and existing infrastructure.
Masbate is not a high-grade asset. Probable Reserves comprise 62.9 million tonnes averaging 0.72 g/t. Remaining pit reserves are in the North and South areas, supplemented by 39.0 million tonnes of stockpiles grading 0.59 g/t. The economics therefore come from scale, long-established infrastructure and the ability to process large tonnages efficiently.
The plant uses a conventional CIP flowsheet: primary crushing, SAG/ball milling with pebble crushing, leaching, carbon adsorption, elution, electrowinning and smelting; tailings undergo cyanide detoxification before deposition. For 2026, B2Gold plans 8.2 million tonnes of feed at 0.93 g/t and approximately 74.9% recovery.
| Reserve area | Moz | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| North | 0,17 | 0.79 g/t |
| South | 0,56 | 1.00 g/t |
| Stockpiles | 0,74 | 0.59 g/t |
Ownership Structure
40% of the mining tenements – but 100% of the processing company.
Masbate has an unusual legal structure that can easily be misunderstood in a superficial NAV calculation. The mining permits are held byFilmineraB2Gold indirectly owns 40% of this company, while 60% is held by Zoom Mineral Holdings. At the same time, B2Gold wholly owns the processing company through PGPRC. PGPRC has the contractual right to purchase all ore mined by Filminera. Masbate therefore cannot be sensibly valued by simply applying 40% to the entire operation – the economic cash flows must be modelled according to the actual structure.
Energy, Location & People
A long-running operation with a growing solar share.
The mine is supplied primarily by its own heavy-fuel-oil/diesel power station with seven generators. This is supplemented by 1.3 MW of rooftop solar and an 8.2 MW solar plant; a further 8.2 MW expansion is planned for the second half of 2026 and is in the permitting process. For an energy-intensive low-grade asset, the power mix is economically relevant.
Masbate is one of the Philippines’ significant gold mines and, according to B2Gold, employs nearly 2,000 people. Local employment, community development, water and tailings management, and eventual closure and rehabilitation therefore remain material parts of the asset profile.
Costs & Minenwerte View
The value lies in harvesting – not in a new growth story.
Updated 2026 guidance is180–200 koz; AISC guidance remains $1,430–1,580/oz. For the DCF, the key is to model the declining mining contribution and later stockpile phase correctly rather than extrapolating 2026 production and costs linearly through 2034.
Masbate is therefore not the asset on which B2Gold’s next growth phase will be built.But an existing plant, 1.46 Moz of reserves and a processing plan through 2034 can still generate substantial free cash flow for years. Precisely because the market often writes off mature mines too early, it is worth modelling the final ounce carefully.
05 · Otjikoto
Otjikoto · Wolfshag · Antelope
Otjikoto.
From open pit to infrastructure platform.
Otjikoto is located roughly 300 kilometres north of Windhoek and is Namibia’s largest gold producer. B2Gold acquired the project with Auryx Gold in 2011, began construction in 2013 and poured first gold in December 2014 – after roughly 20 months and ahead of schedule. The original open pit has now been completed. This marks the beginning of the more interesting second half of the story: Wolfshag Underground, large low-grade stockpiles and Antelope are intended to keep the existing plant utilized into the 2030s.
90%B2Gold interest · 10% EVI Namibia
80–100 kozupdated 2026 production guidance
~98 %typical metallurgical recovery
~110 koz/a2029–2032 potential with Antelope + stockpiles
2025 marked a turning point: after more than a decade, open-pit mining ended in the third quarter. The mill, however, is not disappearing. Wolfshag Underground is expected to supply higher-grade ore initially, while large low-grade stockpiles could keep the plant operating through 2032. B2Gold is now developing Antelope into this available infrastructure – a brownfield project only about three kilometres south of the former Otjikoto open pit.
The currently reported Probable Reserves of the existing Otjikoto operation have declined to roughly90 kozand consist mainly of Wolfshag Underground and ROM stockpiles. The resource base is larger: 0.91 Moz Indicated and 0.95 Moz Inferred. For the future, the key question is therefore less today’s reserve figure than which portions of these resources can be economically converted into feed for the existing mill.
2011B2Gold acquires Auryx Gold and Otjikoto.
2014First gold pour – ahead of schedule.
2025Open-pit mining ends; Antelope development is approved.
2027Wolfshag Underground is expected to wind down under the current plan – exploration could extend it.
2029–32Antelope + stockpiles could deliver ~110 koz annually.
Wolfshag & Stockpiles
The old mine plan is winding down – the infrastructure remains.
Wolfshag Underground is currently expected to mine through 2027. Remaining reserves are roughly 80 koz at 2.67 g/t, while the Indicated Resource is about 130 koz at 5.19 g/t. Otjikoto also holds large low-grade stockpiles: the Indicated Resource comprises roughly 23.45 million tonnes at 0.42 g/t, or 0.31 Moz. These stockpiles are not spectacular ore, but they can continue feeding an already-built, highly efficient plant.
Metallurgy is a clear advantage. Otjikoto typically achieves recoveries around 98%. For 2026, B2Gold plans a feed mix from Wolfshag Underground and existing low-grade stockpiles; updated guidance calls for 80–100 koz. The higher AISC of $1,830–1,980/oz therefore also reflects the transition following the end of open-pit mining.
Antelope · Otjikoto’s second life
Small as a standalone mine – valuable because the infrastructure already exists.
Antelope is the key brownfield catalyst. B2Gold made the underground development decision in September 2025. The PEA outlines an initial five-year mine life, roughly327 koz total productionwith an average of about65 koz per yearat a 5.75 g/t feed grade and 95% recovery. Together with existing stockpiles, Otjikoto could therefore return to approximately110 koz annuallyfrom 2029 through 2032.
5 yearsinitial mine life
5.75 g/taverage feed grade
~US$1,095/ozPEA AISC
~US$105moptimized pre-production capex
US$131mAfter-tax NPV5 @ US$2,400 Au
35 %After-Tax IRR
The PEA originally assumed US$129m of pre-production capital; following further optimization and the September 2025 development decision, B2Gold reduced its current estimate to approximately US$105m. The project metrics should nevertheless be treated with caution: the PEA is preliminary and relies materially on Inferred Resources. B2Gold must further confirm geology, geotechnical conditions, hydrogeology and metallurgy and secure the necessary permits. The economic appeal is nevertheless clear: Antelope does not need to finance a new large processing plant and can use existing Otjikoto infrastructure.
Exploration & Mine Life
A mature mine becomes an exploration story again.
B2Gold has budgeted approximatelyUS$6.1 millionfor exploration at Otjikoto in 2026, focused on Antelope and roughly 15,100 metres of planned drilling. The objective is not only to better define the known deposit: additional high-grade zones could extend today’s five-year Antelope plan and utilize existing infrastructure beyond 2032. Exploration results at Wolfshag also indicate potential to extend underground mining beyond 2027.
Ownership, Location & Minenwerte View
Namibia turns optionality into higher-quality ounces.
B2Gold owns 90% of Otjikoto; 10% is held by the Namibian empowerment company EVI. Compared with Mali, political and fiscal risk is materially lower in our valuation. At the same time, Otjikoto is no longer a greenfield project: the mill, power supply, tailings infrastructure, camp and experienced workforce already exist.
For Minenwerte, Otjikoto is therefore less a conventional “remaining mine-life” asset than aninfrastructure platform with brownfield optionality. The Base Case must realistically reflect declining production from Wolfshag and stockpiles. Antelope should only be weighted according to its development stage. If execution succeeds, however, even a relatively small deposit can monetize a large portion of otherwise underutilized plant capacity.
06 · Gramalote
Gramalote · Antioquia
Gramalote.
Redesigned – not yet built.
Gramalote is located in Antioquia in central Colombia, roughly 230 kilometres northwest of Bogotá and about 100 kilometres northeast of Medellín. The project is technically advanced and already has a long planning and permitting history. Nevertheless, Gramalote remains explicitly a development project today: permits for the former, larger mine concept must be amended for B2Gold’s resized project before a final construction decision makes sense.
2.36 MozProbable Reserves · 100% basis
177 koz/aaverage production · 13-year processing life
US$985/ozLOM AISC · FS 2025
US$740mPre-Production Capital · FS 2025
Today’s Gramalote story begins with a failed larger concept. B2Gold and AngloGold Ashanti had long planned the project as a 50/50 joint venture. The large-scale option studied in 2022 failed to meet the return thresholds of both partners. Rather than abandon the asset, B2Gold acquired AngloGold’s remaining 50% in October 2023 and completely re-evaluated the project.
The result was a smaller, less capital-intensive concept focused more heavily on the higher-grade core of the deposit. A positive PEA in 2024 was followed by a Feasibility Study in July 2025. This evolution matters to the investment thesis: Gramalote is not simply a project waiting for a higher gold price. B2Gold re-optimized scale, plant location, power supply, mining and processing concepts, tailings, resettlement and construction sequencing to structurally improve capital returns.
2022The larger JV concept fails to meet return thresholds.
2023B2Gold buys AngloGold’s 50% and becomes sole owner of Gramalote.
2024–25New PEA followed by a positive Feasibility Study for the smaller project.
2026–27Amendment of Work Plan and environmental permit; resettlement and de-risking in parallel.
~2029/30?Potential production start in the Minenwerte model – not company guidance.
Feasibility Study 2025
A mid-sized open pit with unusually low projected costs.
The FS outlines a conventional open pit with an initial 11-year mine life and a 13-year processing life. The plant is designed to process6.0 million tonnes per yearDuring the first five production years, average feed grade is 1.23 g/t and gold production approximately227 koz per year; over the full project life, average production is 177 koz at 0.96 g/t.
Metallurgically, the project is relatively straightforward. The planned flowsheet combines conventional milling, flotation and cyanide leaching of the flotation concentrate. Extensive test work indicates, according to B2Gold, average gold recovery of95,7 %– at a relatively coarse grind. Total gold production is expected to be approximately 2.3 Moz.
| FS metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Processing Rate | 6.0 Mtpa |
| average production years 1–5 | 227 koz/a |
| average production LOP | 177 koz/a |
| Recovery | 95,7 % |
| LOP AISC | US$985/oz |
| Pre-Production Capex | US$740m |
Project Economics · FS 2025
Economically strong even at US$2,500 gold.
Gold priceUS$2,500/ozFS Base Case
After-Tax NPV5US$941mat the start of construction spending
After-Tax IRR22,4 %3.4-year payback
After-Tax FCFUS$1.67bnover the project life
At the additional gold price case of US$3,300/oz shown in the FS, after-tax NPV5 rises to US$1.716 billion and IRR to 33.5%. For our valuation, however, one detail is crucial:B2Gold’s published NPV figures are calculated at the start of construction spending – not at today’s valuation date.A future Gramalote NAV must therefore be discounted further back to today.
Permitting
The old project was permitted – the new one must be amended.
Gramalote does not start from zero. A Mine Plan and Environmental Permits already exist for the former large-scale project. B2Gold’s new mid-sized concept changes, among other things, the location of the processing plant and infrastructure. It therefore requires aModified Work Planand aModified Environmental Impact StudyThe Work Plan was submitted in December 2025 and the amended environmental study in March 2026. Both submissions were accepted for review; B2Gold expects the amendment process to take approximately twelve months.
This makes permitting progress during 2027 plausible, but not guaranteed. The actual investment decision also comes only after permitting. B2Gold had previously indicated a possible construction decision in late 2026 or early 2027. Minenwerte therefore continues to treat Gramalote as adevelopment project in the permitting and de-risking phase– not as a future mine that has already been approved for construction.
2026Permitting & De-RiskingWork Plan · EIA · Resettlement · Coexistence
→
~2027Permits / construction decision?Timing dependent on authorities and Board decision
→
~3 yearsConstruction & CommissioningMinenwerte model assumption
→
~2029/30Potential production startModel assumption · not B2Gold guidance
People, Resettlement & Artisanal Mining
The technical FS alone does not determine whether the project gets built.
B2Gold has budgeted a total ofUS$61 millionfor Gramalote in 2026 despite no construction decision having been made. Of this, approximatelyUS$35 millionis intended for resettlement programs, coexistence programs for artisanal and small-scale mining, health, safety and environmental projects, and social programs with government and local communities. A substantial portion of planned resettlement is expected to advance by the end of 2026.
These expenditures are not incidental. Gramalote is located in a populated region with existing mining activity. Resettlement, land access and coexistence with local and small-scale mining operations are prerequisites for a technically permitted mine to be built and operated without major disruption. For NAV, this means a strong FS reduces technical risk but does not eliminate permitting, social or execution risk.
Why we do not include 100% of project NPV
Large value – but still several years away.
Gramalote is wholly owned by B2Gold and the FS shows attractive returns even at US$2,500 gold. Nevertheless, in Base NAV we initially include only 70% of the technical project value we derive. The discount reflects that permit amendments are not yet complete, the final construction decision remains outstanding, approximately US$740 million of pre-production capital must be financed and spent, and operating cash flow begins only years later.
In addition, we discount Gramalote in our asset DCF at 7%. Because the published FS reports NPV as of the start of construction expenditure, the derived technical NPV is also discounted back to our valuation date of August 21, 2026. For this timing gap we conservatively apply one full year at 7%. The rationale is straightforward: the modified environmental study was submitted in March 2026 and B2Gold expects the amendment process to take approximately twelve months, while a final construction decision is still outstanding. We currently use 2029/2030 as the modeled production-start window. This is deliberately not company guidance; it follows from the expected permitting period and a rough assumption of about three years for construction, commissioning and ramp-up. Any delay pushes cash flows further out and reduces present value, while completed permits and a firm construction decision would remove a meaningful part of our risk discount.
Gramalote is therefore a genuine option on a fifth major production source – but it is not yet a fifth mine.The project combines low projected operating costs, high recovery, 100% B2Gold ownership and an already advanced technical foundation. Precisely because the economics look strong, it is tempting to add the full FS NPV immediately to corporate value. Our valuation remains more cautious: only permits, a construction decision and a credible schedule can progressively convert theoretical project value into present shareholder value.
07 · Valuation
Sum of the Parts
What are the assets
worth today?
The valuation follows a sum-of-the-parts approach and the standardized Minenwerte valuation framework. Producing reserves, permitted expansions, development projects and additional resources are deliberately treated differently. We first determine the economic value of each asset; project status, ownership, fiscal regime, time value and resource conversion are then incorporated. The objective is not to maximize NAV, but to make valuations as consistent and reproducible as possible across companies.
Minenwerte Valuation Framework
Standardized framework used to determine net asset value (NAV) on minenwerte.de.
A
Mine plan / Reserves
Production supported by reserves is valued at 100% of the asset DCF.
NAV treatment100%of DCF
B
Permitted expansion / Construction project
Defined expansions with a robust production plan receive 95–100% of DCF. A small discount remains where construction or ramp-up risk still exists.
NAV treatment95–100%of DCF
C
Development project
Standalone project DCF with an individual discount for permitting, construction, financing, geological and execution risk.
NAV treatmenttypically 40–90%of project DCF
D
M&I outside the mine plan
Defined resources outside the robust production plan receive only a conservative optionality value.
NAV treatmenttypically 10–30%of reserve NAV/oz
E
Inferred / Exploration
Valued at 0 in Base NAV. Any potential value remains additional upside.
NAV treatment0%in Base NAV
Important:
The percentages are valuation factors, not probabilities of success or conversion. For projects they primarily reflect permitting, construction, financing and execution risks. For M&I resources they account for conversion risk, timing, additional capex and the absence of detailed mine planning.
Transparency & comparability: Every valuation on minenwerte.de follows this framework. Any deviations are explained and disclosed in the relevant analysis.
07.1 · Production profile
2026–2031 · Transition phase
When are the
ounces produced?
Later production is worth less today because of discounting. We therefore reconstruct the production profile as precisely as possible. Where B2Gold publishes specific annual figures, we use them; other figures should be understood as Minenwerte model assumptions.
← Scroll table horizontally →
Asset / koz202620272028202920302031
Fekola Mine / UG~400~320~290~270~250~230
Fekola Regional · Disc. 9%limitedramp-up>150>150>150>150
Goose170–200~330~310~310~300~300
Masbate · Disc. 7%183182179122121117
Otjikoto80–100~70~50~45~45~45
Antelope–––~65~65~65
Masbate 2026–2031 follows the official Technical Report. For Fekola, Regional, Goose and Otjikoto, parts of the longer-term profile remain Minenwerte model assumptions and will be refined as new information becomes available. Gramalote is deliberately treated separately until construction and start-up timing are sufficiently robust.
07.2 · Cost base
DCF assumptions · normalized costs
2026 is not
the steady state.
Group AISC in 2026 matter for near-term cash flow, but they are not an appropriate long-term DCF cost base. B2Gold is simultaneously ramping up Goose, investing heavily at Fekola and transitioning mature assets. We therefore model costs asset by asset and, where sufficiently supported, use normalized steady-state or life-of-mine cost assumptions.
Transition year, not perpetual AISC
The high 2026 AISC include exceptional sustaining and development expenditures, including deferred stripping and underground development. Our DCF therefore uses the published life-of-mine cost structure, remaining capex and the gold-price-dependent Mali fiscal stack rather than perpetuating 2026 AISC.
Ramp-up distorts 2026
2026 still reflects an incomplete ramp-up, low throughput and elevated sustaining and underground-development spending. For longer-term valuation, the published steady-state period is more meaningful: for 2027–2031 approximately $1,129/oz cash costs and $1,363/oz AISC.
Mature cash flow – declining mining share
Masbate is modeled along the official production and cost profile. The key change is the shift from active mining toward stockpile processing; simply extending 2026 AISC to the end of the processing plan would distort the economics.
Stockpiles change the cost logic
After the end of open-pit mining, feed increasingly comes from Wolfshag Underground and low-grade stockpiles. The 2026 AISC reflect this transition. The DCF therefore follows the remaining production profile rather than a blanket group cost assumption.
Minenwerte perspective · Cost base
2026 is an exceptional year for B2Gold. High current AISC do not automatically mean the portfolio will remain at this cost level over the long term. Conversely, we do not simply assume historical low costs. What matters for each asset is the visible production profile, sustaining and growth capex, royalties, taxes and—particularly in Mali—the gold-price-dependent fiscal burden. Only this combination produces the free cash flow used in the asset DCF.
B2Gold in the A–E framework
One portfolio—but not every ounce has the same certainty.
A: Fekola Mine, Goose and Masbate, together with the reserve-backed Wolfshag portion of Otjikoto, are valued at 100% of asset DCF. B: Fekola Regional receives 95% of DCF because the near-term expansion is already permitted. C: Gramalote and Antelope are risk-weighted separately as development projects. D: additional M&I outside robust mine plans—including the Otjikoto stockpiles that are not classified as reserves—receive only a reduced optionality value. E: Inferred resources, pure exploration and George without a sufficiently robust standalone project basis remain at 0 in Base NAV.
← Scroll table horizontally →
Asset NAV · USDm$2,500$4,000$5,500
Fekola Mine · A 100% · Disc. 8%~980~2,450~3,920
Fekola Mine · D additional M&I · 25%~173~432~691
Fekola Regional · B 65% B2Gold · 95%~314~808~1,302
Fekola Regional · D additional M&I · 15% on B basis~82~211~339
Goose · A Reserve case · Disc. 6%~1,250~3,150~5,050
Goose · D additional Indicated · 30%~222~560~898
George · E no robust standalone study · 0%000
Masbate · A Reserve case · Disc. 7%~607~1,406~2,206
Masbate · D 1.72 Moz additional Indicated · 20%~143~331~520
Otjikoto / Wolfshag · A reserve-backed remaining plan · 90% B2Gold~55~114~172
Otjikoto Stockpiles · D Indicated Resource · conservative 20% treatment~26~53~80
Wolfshag · D additional M&I · special treatment~10~17~25
Antelope · C 70% of project value · 90% B2Gold~92~239~385
Gramalote · C NPV7 · discounted to valuation date · 70% risk weighting~485~1,310~2,136
Asset-NAV~4,439~11,081~17,725
Net financial adjustment*−193−193−193
Convertible · If-converted**–+460+460
Equity NAV~4,246~11,348~17,992
Share count**~1.321bn~1.466bn~1.466bn
NAV per share~$3.21~$7.74~$12.27
Market valuation · Price date 21 Aug 2026
Material discount to the $4,000 Base NAV.
At the NYSE American closing price of USD 5.52 B2Gold trades against our Base NAV of approximately USD 7.74 per share at approximately 0.71× NAV. The implied gap to Base NAV is therefore approximately +40%.
Gold traded at approximately USD 4,608/oz on the same date, a little more than 15% above our long-term Base assumption. A simple interpolation between Base and Upside implies an indicative NAV of approximately USD 9.6 per share. This is not a new Base Case, but illustrates the portfolio’s additional gold-price leverage.
NAV is not a price target, but the intrinsic value derived from our long-term assumptions. Additional value may come from successful project execution, better resource conversion or operating outperformance; conversely, the $2,500 scenario illustrates sensitivity to materially lower gold prices.
Spot contextGold $4,608/oz → indicative NAV ~$9.6/sharelinear sensitivity · not a new Base Case
Share price$5.5221 Aug 2026 · NYSE American
Base NAV$7.74$4,000/oz Gold
P/NAV0.71×Price ÷ Base NAV
To Base NAV+40%implied upside
NAV context
Already defined M&I outside current mine plans are not valued at 100%, but only through conservative D factors. Development projects such as Gramalote and Antelope are explicitly risk-weighted, while Inferred resources are valued at 0. The Antelope values above the published PEA range are Minenwerte sensitivity estimates, not company-published study NPVs. The official PEA shows an almost linear NPV5 increase from US$69m to US$193m between US$2,000 and US$2,800 gold – approximately US$31m for each US$200/oz increase. We extend exactly this published sensitivity slope linearly to US$2,500 / US$4,000 / US$5,500 and then apply B2Gold’s 90% ownership and the 70% Category-C factor. This produces the rounded values shown in the table of approximately US$92m / US$239m / US$385m.
For project-linked D resources, we do not automatically apply the undiscounted NAV/oz of a producing asset: Fekola Regional inherits the already reduced B basis. At Otjikoto, we separate the reserve-backed remaining Wolfshag plan (A) from low-grade stockpiles classified only as Indicated Resources (D); additional Wolfshag M&I continues to receive a separate special treatment. George remains at 0 in Base NAV without a robust standalone study.
* Net financial adjustment as of 30 Jun 2026: USD 286.6m cash + USD 193.7m long-term investments + USD 134.3m associates − USD 456.1m financial debt − USD 257.3m gold-stream obligation − USD 94.0m gold derivatives = approximately −USD 192.9m. No additional blanket corporate-G&A present value is deducted where the AISC/project-cost assumptions already include those costs. ** Downside: approximately 1.321bn actual shares. Base/Upside: if-converted approach; upon conversion, the approximately USD 460m face value of the convertible notes is added back to equity value. The initial conversion rate of 315.2088 shares per USD 1,000 principal implies approximately 145m additional shares and a fully diluted share count of approximately 1.466bn.
Minenwerte perspective
The market currently pays about 71 cents for each dollar of our modeled intrinsic value.
In our $4,000 Base Case, the model produces a B2Gold NAV of approximately USD 7.74 per share. At a closing price of USD 5.52, this equates to P/NAV of approximately 0.71× and an implied gap of approximately 40% to Base NAV.
This discount should not be confused with a risk-free project value. Mali is discounted more heavily than lower-risk jurisdictions; Fekola Regional retains a residual discount despite permitting, while Gramalote and Antelope are only partially recognized because of permitting, construction, geological and timing risks. Additional M&I resources also enter NAV only at heavily reduced values; Inferred resources and pure exploration are valued at 0 in Base NAV.
The key question is therefore execution: Goose must reach steady state, Fekola Regional must economically extend existing infrastructure, and the next generation of projects must be converted into cash flow without excessive capex or renewed delays. If that happens, the current share price offers a substantial margin relative to our long-term Base Case.
08 · Opportunities & Risks
Catalysts · Execution · Governance
What can create value.
And what needs to work.
B2Gold is in a phase where both opportunities and risks are driven primarily by the portfolio transition. Fekola remains an exceptionally important cash-flow contributor but carries Mali and fiscal risk. After its costly ramp-up, Goose now needs to demonstrate that it can reliably reach the planned steady state of more than 300 koz of annual production at materially lower costs. At the same time, optionality extends well beyond today’s four mines: Fekola Regional, Antelope and Gramalote can extend existing production platforms or create new ones, while the high-grade Back River District could ultimately become substantially more than Goose alone.
Back River is particularly interesting strategically: Goose established expensive infrastructure in a remote but geologically exceptional gold district for the first time. Other known high-grade deposits and resources could eventually provide additional feed sources or standalone satellite developments. Our Base NAV recognizes defined Indicated resources only through conservative D treatments. George, Inferred resources and pure exploration remain entirely outside Base NAV without a sufficiently robust project basis.
The central question is therefore less whether B2Gold has additional geological opportunities, and more how reliably and capital-efficiently the company can convert them into cash flow. Alongside country, permitting and execution risks, the quality of scheduling therefore forms part of our risk assessment.
Goose Ramp-up
From exceptional year to steady stateIf Goose transitions to more than 300 koz of annual production at the planned normalized costs, B2Gold’s cash-flow structure changes materially. If throughput, grades or costs fall short of plan, one of the most important building blocks of our valuation would prove too optimistic.
Fekola Regional
Extend infrastructure utilizationWith Menankoto, the central regulatory obstacle has been removed. Regional can feed additional ounces through existing Fekola infrastructure—albeit under a materially more demanding fiscal regime.
Back River District
More than GooseGoose is the first developed part of a larger high-grade gold system. Other known deposits and resources could extend the use of the new infrastructure and enable additional mines. This optionality is only partially reflected in our Base NAV.
Gramalote
Permit amendments + construction decisionThe strong FS demonstrates substantial economic value. The key steps now are the permit amendments, a firm construction decision and disciplined execution of the approximately USD 740m project.
Cost inflation
Normalization is not guaranteedOur DCF deliberately does not perpetuate the exceptionally high 2026 AISC. If labor, energy, reagents, logistics or sustaining capex rise more persistently than assumed, the expected margin recovery would be weaker.
Antelope geology
High potential value—still Inferred-heavyThe development decision and existing Otjikoto infrastructure reduce execution risk, but the PEA is still based to a significant extent on Inferred resources. Conversion, geometry and actual mine performance still need to be demonstrated.
Mature assets
Masbate & OtjikotoBoth assets are approaching the end of their conventional mining plans. Remaining value increasingly depends on stockpile processing, resource conversion and the economic extension of existing infrastructure.
Balance sheet & financing
Convertible notes, project capital and flexibilityB2Gold has substantial cash-flow potential, but must also fund development projects and account for the convertible notes due in 2030. Higher capex or weaker gold prices could reduce financial flexibility.
Management & forecasting quality
Operationally experienced—recently too optimistic on timelines.
B2Gold has successfully developed and operated mines for many years. Over the past two years, however, the reliability of communicated timelines and production assumptions has repeatedly been a weakness. Fekola Regional is the clearest example: at the start of 2025, the exploitation permit was still expected in the first quarter and first production by mid-2025. The expectation later moved to the end of Q3 2025, then Q1 2026 and finally mid-2026. The Menankoto Exploitation Permit was ultimately granted only on August 7, 2026.
Operating expectations also required adjustment. Fekola produced approximately 393 koz in 2024, missing even the already revised guidance of 420–450 koz after access to higher-grade Phase 7 ore took longer than expected. In August 2026, group guidance was again reduced at the upper end—this time primarily because of the delayed Regional permit.
This matters for our valuation: We do not automatically adopt management guidance as our Base Case. Production starts, ramp-ups, costs and permitting timelines are assessed asset by asset; for projects that are not fully de-risked, we use timing buffers, higher discount rates or explicit risk weightings. The discount is aimed at forecast uncertainty—not indiscriminately at the quality of management or the assets.
Conclusion
B2Gold.
Cash flow, transformation and optionality.
B2Gold today is an internationally diversified gold producer with four producing mines, while its portfolio is simultaneously undergoing a major transition.Fekola remains the most important established cash-flow contributor, Goose is intended to become the second major production pillar, while Masbate and Otjikoto increasingly rely on existing infrastructure and already-developed ore sources. The investment thesis therefore depends less on a single mine than on the interaction of existing cash flow, successful ramp-up and the next generation of projects.
Fekola remains economically strong, but politically and fiscally demanding.The existing mine has high-quality infrastructure and a large processing platform; Underground and Fekola Regional can extend utilization of this base. At the same time, Mali’s new Mining Code reduces the value of additional Regional ounces to B2Gold, and the repeated delays to the Menankoto permit illustrate why we apply a higher risk premium to Mali.
Goose is the most important operating lever for the coming years.In our view, the expensive 2026 ramp-up year is not a meaningful long-term cost anchor. The key question is whether the mine reaches the planned steady state of more than 300 koz per year at materially lower costs from 2027 onward. If it does, not only will group cash flow improve – the newly built infrastructure will also increase the strategic value of the entire high-grade Back River District.
Masbate and Otjikoto show that mature assets do not automatically become worthless.Masbate can continue processing stockpiles for years after active open-pit mining ends and thereby generate cash flow. At Otjikoto, Wolfshag Underground, existing infrastructure and Antelope create a different form of optionality: rather than building a new greenfield mine, existing facilities can be utilized for longer with additional high-grade ore sources.
Gramalote is the major development option outside the existing production platforms.After taking full ownership, B2Gold resized the former oversized project; the Feasibility Study now shows strong economics and low projected operating costs. Nevertheless, we deliberately do not treat Gramalote as a completed mine: permit amendments, a construction decision, roughly US$740 million of pre-production capital and several years until potential cash flow still justify a material risk and timing discount.
The valuation is therefore performed asset by asset rather than using the exceptionally high group AISC of the 2026 transition year. In our US$4,000 gold Base Case, the model currently produces a NAV of approximately US$7.74 per share. At the US$5.52 closing price, this corresponds to approximately 0.71× NAV and an implied gap of about 40% to Base NAV. This discount comes on top of the risk premiums already embedded within the DCF for Mali, later cash flows and projects that are not yet fully de-risked.
The opportunities are real – but so are the execution risks.Goose must complete ramp-up successfully, Regional must actually be brought into production, Gramalote needs permits and a disciplined construction decision, and additional Back River optionality must first be converted into reserves and economic mine plans. In addition, management has on several occasions over the past two years communicated timelines and production contributions earlier or with more certainty than ultimately proved achievable – one reason we do not adopt company guidance uncritically as our Base Case.
Our investment thesis therefore requires neither perfect execution nor full value for every future project.The key question is whether B2Gold can transition from a producer heavily dependent on Fekola into a broader cash-flow portfolio. Goose, Regional, Antelope, Back River and Gramalote provide several paths to achieve this – while today’s valuation already reflects part of the political, operating and timing risks.
Minenwerte View
B2Gold already combines substantial gold production and cash flow with several concrete opportunities to extend and broaden its existing production base. The valuation discount is less extreme than in some deep-value situations, but in our view remains attractive given the risk premiums already embedded in the DCF – provided Goose reaches steady state and management executes the next project generation more conservatively and reliably.
What matters now
The next milestones for the investment thesis.
Ramp-up toward 300 koz
The key operational test is the continuing ramp-up: following the crusher upgrades, can Goose sustainably reach the targeted production scale of around 300 koz per year?
Ramp-up through 2027
With the Menankoto permit granted, execution now matters: pre-stripping, tolling and the ramp-up of Fekola Regional need to put the delayed growth path back on track.