JAPAN GOLD · SOLIDCORE RESOURCES · SCENARIO ANALYSIS
What Is a Gold Discovery Worth Today?
Explore hypothetical gold discoveries for Japan Gold. Not a share-price forecast.
Discovery and development
Why do we use only a 20% Japan Gold interest even at the drilling stage?
Japan Gold initially holds a 100% interest in the relevant projects, subject to Solidcore’s contractual earn-in rights. However, the model values the economic success case after full earn-in: if an attractive deposit is discovered, Solidcore has a strong incentive to finance the agreed exploration and development work and earn up to 80% of a project. Japan Gold would retain 20%.
If Solidcore does not fully exercise its rights, Japan Gold may retain a larger interest. That does not necessarily mean the project has no value: another partner or future development could be possible. These alternatives are conservatively not valued separately.
The 20% is an ownership/JV assumption, not a risk multiplier. The separate NAV multiple reflects development uncertainty. The assumption presumes full earn-in and does not guarantee that Solidcore will complete it.
Hypothetical scenario
– USDIllustrative scenario comparison, not a share-price forecast. Edit the price under “What is the market pricing in?”
Active NAV multiple: 0.35×
Hypothetical DCF scenario value · not a share-price forecast
The theoretical share value is shown to three decimal places for easier comparison. This numerical precision should not be confused with economic reliability: the valuation depends on numerous uncertain assumptions. The calculator values only one hypothetical gold discovery. Japan Gold’s other exploration projects are not included and may represent additional value that cannot currently be estimated reliably. Net cash assumed in the model is already accounted for separately.
Advanced settings
All values are adjustable model assumptions. Reference capex at 1,200 tonnes/day; scaling exponent 0.65.
Illustrative floor for infrastructure, mine access and facilities. Not a verified project-specific cost estimate.
The reference figure remains independent of manual slider adjustments. The share valuation uses the manually assumed initial investment. Simplified model: initial capex = max(minimum investment, USD 350 million × (required tonnes/day ÷ 1,200)^0.65). Capacity depends on resource size, grade, mine life, mining recovery, dilution and operating days. No abrupt capacity-based cost thresholds.
Standalone dilution sensitivity without share-issue proceeds; project capex has already been deducted from NAV. Not a complete financing scenario.
What is the market pricing in?
What hypothetical resource would match the reference share price under identical assumptions?
Market data are editable references only: 446 million shares (unverified figure from the September 30, 2026 analysis), USD 0.090 closing price on Friday, October 9, 2026 (OTC JGLDF; rounded to two decimals in an external review).
Not an established resource or an observable market expectation.
How we calculate the value
1. Deposit and production
2. Annual cash flow (USD million)
3. From cash flow to share value
Simplified tax and capex assumptions: first production can begin from year 1. Construction spending is placed before first production. The model assumes 30% income tax, a 2% royalty and straight-line capex depreciation. Project administration costs are deducted before tax. A minimum initial capex floor prevents implausibly small investments.
Model limitations: Resources and grades are hypothetical. Individual drill holes do not establish a mineral resource. The 20% stake assumes the JV interest after full earn-in; financing and potential dilution are not fully captured. The other 22 projects are assigned zero value. The own-plant case provisionally assumes USD 175/t operating costs (illustrative base case, not a project-specific cost forecast) and a stufenlose Capex-Kurve mit 350 Mio. USD Referenzkosten bei 1.200 t/Tag. Diese Vergleichskalibrierung ersetzt keine projektspezifische Machbarkeitsstudie. Ein manueller Capex-Aufschlag oder -Abschlag wird als Faktor auf die stufenlose Kostenkurve angewendet. Andere Verarbeitungskonzepte werden nicht gesondert modelliert.
Disclosure: The author owns Japan Gold shares. All resources and valuations shown are hypothetical scenarios, not investment advice. Only one hypothetical project is valued; other Japan Gold projects are excluded.
Cost comparables are not directly interchangeable. The USD 175/t base case is illustrative, not a project-specific estimate. Some cost benchmarks include site administration, which may overlap with the additional USD 5 million/year assumed in this model. A mine restart is not directly comparable with greenfield capex.